Modeling Country-Specific Risks in Foreign investment Using an Expert-Driven System
Aboubaker Seddik Meziani
Assuming that regulatory obstacles such as capital controls, breach of contract, and other market imperfections are still predominant even in today’s increasingly integrated financial markets, this study demonstrates application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to effectively assess country-specific risks to cross-border investments. The AHP is an expert-driven system that has been applied to numerous fields but has yet to be applied to the assessment and management of country-risk exposure. This study shows that it is also capable of selecting an optimal host country (OHC) for a foreign investment, herein a national market where country-specific risks are least likely to adversely affect its return.